Architectural Billings in 2025: Where We Are and What’s Ahead
As we hit the halfway mark of 2025, architectural billings across the U.S. are sending mixed signals. Some sectors are rebounding with quiet confidence, while others are still finding their footing after a rocky few years. Whether you’re leading a practice or just keeping a pulse on the market, it’s worth taking a look at what’s shaping this year’s architectural billings—and what it might mean for your firm’s bottom line.
AIA Billings Index: The Pulse Is… Cautiously Optimistic
The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI)—a reliable leading indicator of nonresidential construction activity—has hovered just below the 50 mark for much of early 2025. That threshold separates growth from contraction, and it’s clear firms are still in a holding pattern after the economic whiplash of 2022–2024.
But while the numbers may not be setting records, there’s more nuance beneath the surface.
-
Healthcare and Education Projects remain relatively stable. These sectors tend to weather economic uncertainty better and continue to be supported by both public and private investment.
-
Commercial and Office Work continues to lag, though adaptive reuse and mixed-use developments are offering a bright spot.
-
Multifamily Residential is heating back up, especially in Sun Belt cities and mid-sized metros where housing demand and affordability are colliding.
Regional Trends: It’s All About the Zip Code
Not all markets are created equal. Coastal cities are still dealing with inflated construction costs and regulatory drag, while parts of the Southeast, Southwest, and Mountain West are seeing a surge in demand driven by population growth and corporate relocation.
Firms in Texas, Tennessee, and the Carolinas are reporting steadier backlogs—especially in civic, educational, and industrial sectors—compared to peers in cities like San Francisco or Chicago, where the office market is sluggish and permitting is a bear.
Staffing vs. Workload: The Delicate Dance
Many firms spent 2023 and 2024 tightening their belts, laying off junior staff or deferring new hires. Now that new projects are inching forward, staffing shortages are real—and so is burnout among remaining teams. The result? Increased demand for experienced project managers, technical architects, and marketing talent that can hit the ground running.
Recruiting is more strategic than ever. The firms that are winning top talent in 2025 are the ones moving quickly, offering flexible work structures, and communicating a clear, compelling story about their future.
What This Means for Your Firm
If architectural billings are a crystal ball, 2025 isn’t doom and gloom—but it isn’t easy street either. It’s a year that rewards adaptability, discipline, and good old-fashioned relationship building.
Whether you’re growing your team or refining your positioning, now is the time to:
-
Double down on your strongest sectors—or those with the clearest near-term demand.
-
Invest in marketing and BD that reinforces your value to clients navigating budget constraints and tight timelines.
-
Rebuild your pipeline before the market fully rebounds—and your competitors do the same.
The work is out there. The challenge (and the opportunity) lies in finding the right people, the right clients, and the right strategy to navigate a still-evolving landscape. https://www.aia.org/resource-center/abi-april-2025-billings-continue-decline-architecture-firms